Sunday, January 27, 2008

Speculations...

Hmm, thinkings, thinkings, ponderings, wonderings...hang on gotta go to the can. Okay, I'm back! Today, we'll discuss something that's sorta slipped off the radar for a while. Usama Bin Laden! Where the heck is that guy!?! literally a guy with a price tag on his head the size of a huge super-lotto jackpot 25-million dollars - the kind of money that would bump you right into the tax bracket of the pretty-stinkin-filthy-rich. Where in the world could that dude be hangin' out?

Some speculation is that he's in the northern regions of Pakistan, or possibly southern Afghanistan. But I think he's probably doing something different...since he'd have to be growing pretty tired of hiding in caves, and small villages with all the comfjorts of the 15th century. No, I'm pretty convinced he's in a more urban environment. So to that end, we've got Islamabad, or Karachi (Pakistan's largest city) where there are certainly groups that would harbor such a fugitive, but it also seems unlikely that he could move around there without someone spilling the beans and grabbing 25 million smackeroos.

So where else? Well, there's the Persian Gulf states, where one might suspect Saudi Arabia, or Dubai. But both of these has problems for the fugitive, since Dubai's probably (I'm guessing) full of Vegas-like camera-security, where sooner or later his image would appear, and some enterprising and underpaid Filipino security staffer would take a shot at the reward. Saudi Arabia is a different mix...and a place I don't have a lot of insight on. My guess is that we (the U.S.A.) have enough people on the ground there, where they might get wind of him lurking about. But there are also a huge number or Princes and the like, where he could hide out in a backwater palace in exchange for some shekels. Of course, he would also risk the chance of betrayal...so there's clearly cons against that idea.

But to the North of Afghanistan there's a few countries that might be interesting. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan! Old ex-soviet republics, with pretty authoritarian regimes, restricted media, and the kind of place where the general population might not even know who Bin Laden is, much less know he's worth a huge fortune.

Those seem to me to be best spots to start looking, if one were inclined to, you know, get a group of people together to start looking for the reward money. And I'm not doing anything super important right now...whaddaya say?

2 comments:

A said...

I must disagree. The governments of Central Asia - Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in particular play up the threat of Islamic terrorism to a huge degree, as an excuse to maintain authoritarian control over their populations. EVERYONE in Tajikistan knows who bid Laden is, even elderly grandmothers in mountain villages.

A said...

I must disagree. The governments of Central Asia - Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in particular play up the threat of Islamic terrorism to a huge degree, as an excuse to maintain authoritarian control over their populations. EVERYONE in Tajikistan knows who bid Laden is, even elderly grandmothers in mountain villages.