Thursday, September 25, 2008
The pleasure of paying more for less
Okay - I promise this won't be about the current economic news...it'll be bigger AND BETTER!
(P.S. - does anyone think the "cracked" media player (from like 4 posts ago) is causing this page to load really slow? - might just be me, my innernets/compooter is terrible these days - but I'd be happy to hear anyone's thoughts)
Now then, back to business. (b2b would be a good text shortening, dontchathink?) So okey my lovely fjordinite readers, lemme pose you this question.
What holds it's value?
Like, in a natural disaster like the Tsunami, or Katrina, where whole metropolis or region-sized disasters wipe out all systems of power, transportation, supply - hell - civilization...water holds it's value. Food holds it's value. Guns and swords hold their value, for forcing those with water and food to give them up, or protecting your own food and water. Thas mothafjuckin' anarchy...and is quite a bit different than what I'm talking about.
But in a short-term catastrophe, priorities are different than in a longer-term breakdown like, say a full-on-global-economic depression.
I'm sayin' I've got, say, 3-grand in mutual funds that I know are going to be worth less and less in a global depression. However, in a depression, the water system will still (mostly) work, but maybe cash won't be worth much more than the paper it's printed on. So what holds it's value? Gold? Well, gold will always have some value, but gold will only be worth what the seller of goods will demand. Gold will loose it's value to local exchange rates.
(If you need a fork-lift palette of canned beans valued at $1,000.00 and have a 4 oz bar of gold valued at $4,000.00 and the guy with the beans says, okay - gimme the gold-bar for the palette or no deal, you give him the gold for the food you need, loosing $3,000.00 worth of other goods and services. (- Gold coins might be a better alternative, but same diff. in the overall market strategy.)
So, weapons seem like a good choice, have a lot of firearms on hand for trading for valuable things. A loaded Beretta is worth a lot of aspirin...hell, a ton of aspirin. But problematically, once you start trading weapons for stuff, the weapons you trade from your stockpile can be used against you. Especially once you're known as someone who has a lot of weapons. That trade exponentially increases your danger - so I think that has to be ruled out as a place to put your money now.
Strangely, I also don't think something as simple as massed amounts of canned food is a good investment either...since there may be a crash which really doesn't effect the food supply, or local production will be enough to supply demand with only shortages of imported grains/fruits/meat, and then you're left with a whole mess of practically valueless foodstuffs.
So what would hold value? In a long-term full-on-global economic depression that will hit in ways we haven't dealt with since the 1930's...yet different, as certain systems of supply we enjoy, won't be wiped out...but it's impossible to predict which ones will vanish.
So, what to buy with whatever capital you have left before the markets collapse...that will hold value in a depression...that won't spoil during a time in storage...and something you can store easily (in your house or apartment), something you can break up into negotiated units per-local market value - and also something with which you can influence your own local market-price for, and something that won't make you an overt target for more violent groups that will certainly operate with an underfunded (and easily corrupted) law-enforcement authority?
Wow, tough one.
My guess? Booze, or medicine.
Both can be stored easily, and broken into tradeable (sp?) units.
A bottle of whisky can be used to purify a lot of water, (which could be a problem) used medicinally (say before (or after) an ad-hock surgery) or just for forgetting how crappy life is at the moment and to have a good time. It's also going to be worth more as supply grows thin, and it will, pretty quick.
A bottle of Tylenol is probably going to still be found in lots of places, but it'll be worth 50-100 bucks at least, in stores that can stock it and still take cash. Yet it would be super valuable to people with limited access to any form of healthcare. Toothaches, headaches, backaches, inflamed joints, fever -these are going to be rampant. A few pills could getcha a couple days food - easy.
Both, which might not end up all that scarce, (heck could be the only things getting thru) but they could still be traded under market value for other tangible goods. Now, you know I'm just guessin' here, and I know there's a buncha stuff I haven't considered, but more than a few fortunes have been made in an economic breakdown. I'm really just wondering - if I take all the money I have in every account and buy something that would truly hold it's value, what would it be?
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3 comments:
I didn't leave yet! November 24th
Interesting..\ have you seen waterworld? PAPER!!
I jest, i think you have summed it up OK, non perishables and physical fitness hold value.
D - Cool...I got my numbers - err months mixed up!
R - I have NOT seen Waterworld...tho I know Costner's nephew! It's definately about non-perishables, just which ones. I think it would be awesome to skate thru a depression being a dude who sells some sort of workout machine.
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